Early Birds, Second Mice, and a Dancing Guy

Timing is Everything

In today’s unpredictable world, good leadership isn’t just about moving fast.  Instead, it’s about moving with judgment; it involves knowing when to lead from the front, and when to watch, learn, and move decisively at just the right moment.

We all know the old saying:  “The early bird catches the worm”.  And in business, this has often been held up as a truth that the leaders who spot opportunities early, move decisively, and act faster than their competitors are the ones who reap the rewards.

But there’s an intriguing amended version of the story: “The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese”.  Sometimes, rushing in first means encountering the pitfalls, while the more patient player benefits from observing, learning, and timing their move more wisely.

And, there is yet another twist to the story where the mouse recognises the true value of the cheese - and what can be done with it.   In a business context, good leadership often emerges not from being first, but from being the first to believe, and acting decisively on that. Sometimes the true catalyst for change isn’t the lone visionary - it’s the first follower.

When Being First Matters

There are undeniable advantages to being early:

• Defining the market. First movers shape expectations and customer habits.
• Building brand loyalty.  Customers can remember the pioneers.
• Capturing premium value.  Being unique often commands a premium — at least at first.

Netflix anticipated the shift from DVD rentals to streaming long before the mainstream was ready. They built the infrastructure and changed customer habits before most competitors realised the game had shifted. But being first is not without risk.  Early movers often pay the costs associated with market education, infrastructure investment, and learning through painful mistakes.

“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

Peter Drucker

When Being Second is Smarter

Waiting has its advantages too:

• Lower risk. Others expose themselves to early failures.
• Clearer customer needs.  Early pioneers help refine what the market actually wants.
• Faster scaling.  Second movers can enter with more polished products and better timing.

Facebook wasn’t the first social network - early on, MySpace dominated. But by learning from MySpace’s mistakes, becoming more focused on user experience, and scaling methodically, Facebook overtook and eventually redefined the social media landscape.  In volatile or nascent markets, the second mouse approach can be a smarter, and more profitable strategy.

“You don't always have to be first. You just have to be better.”

Jack Dorsey (co-founder of Twitter)

The Forgotten Player: The First Follower

Beyond the early bird and the second mouse, there’s another critical role often overlooked: 'The First Follower'.

There's a popular leadership video: 'Leadership Lessons from a Dancing Guy'.  In this, a lone dancer starts a strange dance on a crowded hillside - he's completely ignored.   Then one brave person joins him; people take notice of this second dancer and soon, others follow, and start dancing too.   And so, a movement begins - slowly at first, then more rapidly.  But it was the first follower, not the initiator, who brought the idea to the crowd (the market).

“The first follower transforms a lone nut into a leader.”

Derek Sivers

Here, the second mouse, doesn't just eat the cheese, but recognises its potential and does something useful and valuable with it.  In business terms:

• Innovators blaze the trail, allowing you to observe, learn, and refine your own approach.
• First followers validate the idea, skip the costly missteps, make the idea credible, and optimise for what the market really wants.

You may be aware of Everett Rogers' Innovation Diffusion model which splits the market into Innovators (the lone dancing guy), early adopters (first followers), early majority (the larger crowd that joins after early adopters make it safe), then the late majority (who join because everyone else is), and laggards.  Real change happens not with the innovators, but with the early adopters who move next, making new ideas safe, visible, and adoptable by the majority. 

Thoughts for CEOs and Business Owners

Neither being first nor second is automatically better.  The real skill lies in knowing:

• When to lead boldly.
• When to watch and learn.
• When to validate and act decisively as the first credible mover.

Here are some strategic questions to consider when trying to work out the best approach:

• How risk-tolerant is your market? Are your customers adventurous early adopters, or cautious pragmatists?
• Where is the real risk — in waiting, or in moving too soon?
• How fast is the market really moving?
• Are you aligned with your company’s natural strengths? What is your company's nature?  Some companies are born innovators. Others thrive as fast followers. Forcing a role you’re not built for can be more damaging than helpful.
• Are you actively learning from others? Observation isn’t passive, it’s active reconnaissance. Learn faster than your competitors.
• Can you experiment small before committing big? Early pilot projects allow you to test assumptions without risking your core business.

And a final Thought ...

In a world obsessed with speed, it’s tempting to believe that moving first guarantees success.  But history tells a different story.

Sometimes the worm is worth chasing. Sometimes it’s wiser to let someone else spring the mouse-trap. And sometimes, the true leadership opportunity lies in being the first person to recognise potential, willing to believe, and then move when the timing is right.

The best leaders today aren’t just early or late. They are timely — deliberate, observant, decisive.

They know when to dance alone, when to follow, and when to lead the whole movement forward.

 Ad Futurum 

Graham